How much can the new president accomplish after he enters office in January? Scientific American spoke with Paulo de Bessa Antunes, an environmental law professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro and a former federal prosecutor in Brazil. He fought the Bolsonaro administration in the courtroom and has prosecuted many environmental cases.
[An edited transcript of the interview follows.]
Nowadays we have a strong commitment from various countries not to buy illegal timber, soybeans and beef. The modern sector of these industries in Brazil will be side by side with Lula because they know that otherwise foreign markets will be closed to them.
Does greater unity of the international community put Lula in a better position now than in his last tenure?
Yes, I think so. Brazil was once a world leader on environmental issues. Now I think other countries are feeling that “Brazil is back to the gate,” something like what happened with the Trump administration changing to the Biden administration. I see things as moving forward quickly now. Lula is also committed to creating a dedicated climate change agency that will be even better than the current structure we have, where climate change is under the umbrella of the environmental ministry.
Bolsonaro tried to change some laws, but he faced opposition both in [Brazil’s] congress and in our supreme court. In 90 percent of the cases that went before the supreme court, the court ruled that the changes were unlawful. Brazil now has 29 percent of its land protected by environmental law, far higher than the world average. And that does not include the lands of Indigenous people, which are the best protected lands in Brazil.
But the powerful “ruralista” agribusiness lobby that fights for the expansion of soy and beef production remains. And Brazil elected a more conservative congress in October. How much of a stumbling block might this be to Lula’s environmental agenda?
Here’s the thing—money talks loudest of all. The agricultural sector depends on exporting its products abroad, so [that market] pressure is having a big impact. The mainstream of modern Brazilian agriculture understands that they need to adapt. You see that Simone Tebet, [a politician who is more conservative than Lula] who came in third in the first round of voting [for the presidential election], she’s now joined Lula [by endorsing him in the final election], and she is from Mato Grosso, an extremely agrodependent state. Lula is very skilled at arranging things with these people, at forging alliances.
During his campaign, Lula advocated for a green economy, including increasing environmental protection, subsidizing sustainable farming and reforming Brazil’s tax code. Skeptics wonder how he will pay for this.
Nevertheless, Lula also said he wants to develop infrastructure. How can that happen while preserving the forest?
Indigenous people have lost rights under the Bolsonaro administration. For example, their lands have been invaded by gold miners and ranchers with impunity. How will this change?
Indigenous rights are written into the Brazilian constitution. Bolsonaro didn’t comply with these rights, but the rights existed. Lula has pledged to create a new ministry for the original peoples that will raise the level of the protection in Indigenous areas. [An Indigenous] person will be at the head. This will make a huge difference. The previous agency FUNAI [National Indian Foundation] was hugely underfunded under Bolsonaro.
Are you worried that some of the states remain under right-wing leaders? How much do states control environmental policy?
The U.S. is more rooted in the power of the states. In the Brazilian federation, the union is the main player. The states are very dependent on the central government. Yes, you have some right-wing state governments. But they have to align with the federal government, which they need to function. One of the first meetings that Lula will have is with all the governors. He’ll say, “Listen, tell me what your needs are.” And there will be bargaining: “I will give you what you want if you give me what I want.”
Does Brazilian public opinion support preserving the rain forest?
Does the political instability of recent years, with one president being impeached and another gutting environmental regulations and encouraging lawlessness, give you pause?
I’m a realistic optimist. After all this recent political chaos, our society is a little more mature and understands that we need stability. We’ve seen that even in the people who supported Bolsonaro. When Lula won, the president of Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies [essentially] said, “Well, Lula is the next president.” The president of the senate said the same thing. The political elite understand that if we keep struggling all the time, we’ll go nowhere. Lula will bring stability because he has a big alliance, basically everyone except for the far right. We will have a national unity government. The future is likely to be good if we keep on this path. I think Brazilians understand this.
